Detailed Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for November 16, 2025. G20 Meeting, Preliminary GDP of Japan for Q3, and Upcoming Company Reports from the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.
Sunday presents a relatively calm agenda for global markets, with a few key benchmarks. The day's focus is on the G20 Sherpa meeting in South Africa, where global economic issues and the final agenda for the upcoming leaders' summit will be discussed. The Asian session is preparing for the release of preliminary GDP data from Japan for Q3, which could influence the yen's exchange rate and investor sentiment in the region. With no major macroeconomic releases in the US and Europe due to the weekend, attention shifts to the week's outcomes and signals from the G20. On the corporate front, the quarterly earnings season is nearly complete: no new reports are expected from blue-chip companies in the S&P 500 or Euro Stoxx 50, though some firms from Asia and emerging markets continue to publish results. It is important for investors to assess the limited weekend events in the context of overall dynamics: geopolitics and G20 meetings ↔ data from Asia ↔ monetary policy expectations for the coming week.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- All day - G20: Start of the final Sherpa meeting before the leaders' summit (Johannesburg, South Africa, November 16–19).
- 02:50 (Mon) - Japan: GDP for Q3 (preliminary estimate).
G20: Global Agenda and Policy Coordination
- The final G20 Sherpa meeting aims to finalize the draft communiqué for the summit; key topics include measures to support global growth, reforms of international financial institutions, climate initiatives, and development assistance.
- The political background is complicated: the US has announced that it will not send an official delegation to the upcoming summit, highlighting disagreements within the G20. Nevertheless, other participants are keen to demonstrate unity on key issues, ranging from debt relief for developing countries to energy policy coordination.
- Markets are watching for any statements from Johannesburg: consensus among the G20 on global economic stimulus or climate finance could bolster risk appetite, while signs of geopolitical tension might increase demand for safe-haven assets (gold, yen).
Japan: Preliminary Q3 GDP Data
- Japan's economy, which showed +0.5% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q2 2025 (annualized +2.2% year-on-year), may have slowed down from July to September. Forecasts suggest the first quarterly decline in a year and a half (~–0.5% to –0.7% quarter-on-quarter), driven by a downturn in exports, a drop in housing investments, and inventory reductions.
- Importantly, domestic demand remains relatively resilient: household consumption and business capital expenditures are expected to continue growing moderately. This indicates that the current downturn may be temporary – for instance, exports may have declined after an earlier surge in shipments ahead of US tariffs, and construction activity adjusted following regulatory changes.
- For markets, the GDP data will serve as an indicator of monetary prospects: a deeper downturn could amplify expectations for easy monetary policy from the Bank of Japan and weaken the yen, supporting exporter stocks. Conversely, if the economy unexpectedly avoids a downturn or the decrease proves minimal, confidence in recovery may strengthen, potentially boosting the Nikkei 225 and strengthening the yen.
Corporate Reports: US and Europe
- In the US, the earnings season for Q3 is effectively complete. Most S&P 500 companies have reported, generally showing a rebound in profits compared to last year's slump. The holiday means no new reports are expected, so investors are digesting previously released results. The focus is on overall trends: the retail sector displayed resilient consumer demand, technology firms broadly exceeded expectations, and industrial margins recovered amid easing inflationary pressure.
- European markets are also experiencing a pause in corporate releases. In the Euro Stoxx 50, the vast majority of issuers have already disclosed quarterly results, with a generally positive-neutral tone: banks and energy companies benefited from rising interest rates and commodity prices, while consumer sectors face varied demand. In the absence of new reports over the weekend, European investors are looking to external signals – the situation in China and outcomes from G20 meetings – to assess how these factors might impact the export prospects for the region.
Corporate Reports: Asia and Russia
- In Asia, the publication of individual corporate results continues. In China and other Asian markets, a number of companies with non-standard fiscal years or smaller-cap issuers are reporting third-quarter results during this period. For example, next week, investors are expecting financial results from major Chinese retailers and technology firms, which will add volatility to the sector. On the Japanese market, most giant firms already released results earlier in November, so no new drivers from earnings reports are anticipated on Sunday.
- On the Russian market (MOEX), the season for publishing results for the first nine months is nearing its end. Major blue-chip companies – banks, oil and gas firms, and metallurgists – reported in the early weeks of November, showing mainly revenue growth thanks to a weak ruble and high prices for export goods. Remaining reports are more isolated (mostly medium and small issuers) and do not significantly impact the index. Investors in Russia are shifting their focus to companies' dividend forecasts and operational indicators for the fourth quarter, as well as external factors including oil dynamics and sanctions risks.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Euro Stoxx 50: The absence of weekend statistical releases indicates that the sentiment in European markets will be shaped by global news. On Monday, investors in Europe will assess the outcomes of the G20 meeting and any statements regarding global trade or climate policy. Furthermore, following weak macro data from China (slower industrial production and retail sales in October), European exporters may come under pressure if signs of cooling demand are confirmed.
- Nikkei 225 / Japan: The Japanese market enters the new week with the GDP data and external background in mind. The Nikkei 225 has shown an upward trend in 2025, fueled by a weak yen and inflows of foreign investments. Attention now shifts to macro indicators: confirmation of a GDP downturn could temporarily dampen enthusiasm, especially in the financial and real estate sectors. However, resilient domestic demand and absence of surprises from the Bank of Japan will support investors. Additionally, upcoming results from Nvidia, the largest US chipmaker, this week will serve as a barometer for technology demand, which is important for Japanese export-oriented companies.
- MOEX / Russia: The Russian stock market ended the week on an upward note, partly thanks to stable oil prices and a surge in retail investor participation. In the absence of external catalysts on Sunday, the dynamics of the local market are determined by technical factors and expectations for the new week. The ruble has recently strengthened due to tax-related currency sales, somewhat limiting the Moscow Exchange index, which is rich in exporters. Nevertheless, high commodity market conditions and record dividend payouts will continue to attract interest in Russian securities. Investors should keep an eye on any potential announcements from authorities or companies over the weekend that could influence the prices of individual stocks on Monday.
Daily Summary: What Investors Should Focus On
- G20 and Geopolitics: Any agreements or disagreements expressed at the G20 meeting will set the tone for the start of the week. Unity on issues related to supporting the global economy and trade will enhance optimism in the markets, while escalated rhetoric between major powers (e.g., the US and China) may conversely increase demand for "safe havens."
- Data from Asia: The market reaction to Japan's GDP will be immediate – particularly in the currency market. A sharp deviation from the forecast could lead to significant movement in the USD/JPY rate and set the momentum for Asian indices. Investors will need to assess Asian dynamics on Monday morning to adjust their positions ahead of the European opening.
- Liquidity and Weekend Risks: With major world exchanges closed on Sunday, this may lead to low liquidity in certain markets (e.g., the Middle East, where trading continues) and sharp movements in response to unexpected news. It is advisable to keep the portfolio protected: using stop orders and hedging, considering potential gaps when trading opens on Monday.
- Starting the New Week: The information lull over the weekend is a good opportunity for investors to reassess macro and micro factors. The upcoming week will bring significant events (Fed minutes, inflation data in Europe, key reports from individual companies), so it is wise to define levels and strategies now. A calm Sunday can be used to balance the portfolio and prepare for any potential volatility.
