Economic Events and Corporate Reports on July 26, 2026: Fed, Big Tech, Oil

Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Earnings for July 26, 2026: Markets Are Closed, but the Week's Agenda Is Set — Federal Reserve Decision, Bank of Japan Meeting, Quarterly Results from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Shell, and Rio Tinto, Along with the Reaction of the Moscow Exchange Index to the Central Bank of Russia's Rate Cut

Sunday, July 26, 2026, is a trading holiday with no macroeconomic statistics. Global markets are closed, the economic calendar is empty, and Russia observes Navy Day. However, for investors, this is not a pause but an opportunity for preparation: a week packed with activities lies ahead. Economic events and corporate earnings from July 27 to 31 include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the Bank of Japan meeting, the release of US GDP for the second quarter and the PCE deflator, as well as quarterly results from companies that represent a significant portion of the S&P 500's market capitalization. Meanwhile, the lingering conflict surrounding Iran continues to keep Brent oil near the three-digit mark.

Global Market Trading Week Outcomes

The week closed with mixed and generally negative results. On Friday, July 24, the S&P 500 gained a negligible 0.05% to close at 7,411.98 points, the Dow Jones increased by 0.46% to 51,947.25, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.64% to 24,975.82. Over the course of the five sessions, all three US indices were in the red, with Nasdaq reporting a loss of about 2%.

• The week's main shock was the sell-off on Thursday when the "magnificent seven" collectively lost about $800 billion in market capitalization.
• Alphabet saw its value drop by approximately 7%, while Tesla plunged by 14% as both companies reported negative free cash flow for the quarter amid a surge in AI infrastructure investments.
• Intel experienced a nearly 8% decline on Friday, despite delivering results above expectations as the market punishes excessive spending rather than revenue.
• Apple, in contrast, gained around 3.5%, bolstering the Dow and setting new historical highs earlier in July.

Simultaneously, the earnings season is performing strongly; of the first 95 S&P 500 companies to report, about 88% exceeded profit forecasts. The divergence between strong figures and weak market reactions serves as a key signal for investors: the market is reassessing capital expenditures rather than profits.

Oil, Gas, and Gold: Geopolitical Premium in Prices

Commodity markets remain the primary conduit for geopolitical risk transmission to the global economy. On Friday, Brent decreased by approximately 4% to close near $97 per barrel, marking the largest single-day decline since late June, yet for the week, prices rose over 12%.

1. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, with part of the export flows from the Persian Gulf redirected.
2. Attacks by the Houthis on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea have initiated a second front of logistical risks and increased freight rates.
3. Gold remains close to historical highs (around $4,100 per ounce), reflecting sustained demand for safe-haven assets.
4. The refining margins for diesel and jet fuel in Europe remain abnormally high amid low inventories.

Central Banks: The Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Central Bank of Russia

The week of July 27-31 is a central banking monetary policy week.

• The US Federal Reserve will meet on July 28-29. The rate currently stands between 3.50% and 3.75%, with no new dot plot forecasts released. Futures pricing indicates a 64% chance of maintaining the rate and about a 35% chance of a 25 basis point increase. The key market event will be the press conference from Chairman Kevin Warsh.
• The Bank of Japan convenes on July 30-31 and will publish its quarterly Outlook Report. Following a June increase, the current rate is 1.0%; consensus anticipates a pause, but comments regarding inflation could significantly shift the yen’s trajectory.
• The Central Bank of Russia lowered the key rate by 25 basis points to 14.00% per annum on July 24—marking the tenth consecutive decline and the fifth in 2026. The regulator signaled a neutral position, highlighting rising inflation expectations and increasing prices for fuel and agricultural products, while maintaining inflation in the range of 4–5% annually.

Corporate Earnings This Week: USA and the S&P 500

The corporate earnings calendar for US public companies this upcoming week is the busiest of the quarter:

• Wednesday, July 29: Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Qualcomm, Starbucks, Public Storage, Humana, Boston Scientific, Biogen, Cognizant.
• Thursday, July 30: Amazon, Apple, Mastercard, Valero Energy, Regeneron, Exelon, Xcel Energy.
• Throughout the week: Procter & Gamble, General Dynamics, L3Harris, Johnson Controls, Amphenol, Garmin, Old Dominion Freight Line, Visa, Coca-Cola, PayPal.

The critical consideration for investors is not revenue but capital expenditures by hyperscalers and the dynamics of cloud segments such as Azure and AWS.

Europe: Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100 and Energy Profit Discrepancy

European earnings for the second quarter show an aggregate profit growth of around 17%, although nearly all this increase is attributed to the energy sector. TotalEnergies reported adjusted net income of about $6 billion (+67% YoY), while Repsol posted €1.84 billion compared to €598 million last year. For industries, airlines, and the consumer sector, the same oil constitutes costs.

This week, earnings reports from AstraZeneca and Vodafone (July 27), Barclays, GSK, Unilever (July 28), Airbus, Rio Tinto, Standard Chartered, Reckitt, Glencore (July 29), Shell, Lloyds, Rolls-Royce, BAE Systems, Anglo American, British American Tobacco, London Stock Exchange Group (July 30), and NatWest, IAG, ITV, Taylor Wimpey (July 31) will be due. The composite PMI for Germany returned to growth territory in July (51.2), slightly improving the outlook for the Eurozone.

Asia: Nikkei 225, Yen, and Chinese Demand

The Japanese market remains near record levels, with a weak yen continuing to support exporters: some investment firms have revised their USD/JPY forecasts towards further depreciation of the Japanese currency. Key factors for Asian markets will include the Bank of Japan's decision, data on industrial production and inflation in Tokyo, and the response of Chinese metallurgists and oil refiners to rising commodity prices.

Russia: Moscow Exchange Index After Rate Cut

The Russian stock market registered its first weekly gain in nearly twenty weeks. The Moscow Exchange Index, which had dipped below 2,100 points before the Central Bank's meeting, recovered losses following the rate decision. Key gainers on Friday included "Rusagro" (+35.7% on corporate news), the Moscow Exchange (+5.7%), MMK (+4.9%), "En+ Group" (+4.2%), alongside "PhosAgro," "Yandex," and NLMK.

The corporate events calendar on MOEX includes:

• July 27 — "Norilsk Nickel": production results for the first half of 2026.
• July 28 — TGK-1 and "All Instruments": operational results for six months.
• July 29 — "Acron": annual shareholders' meeting on dividends (235 rubles per share).

From already published reports, Novatek's net profit under IFRS for the half-year decreased to 218.6 billion rubles. An additional factor includes the extension of the OFAC license for discussions regarding the sale of "Lukoil's" international assets until August 22, 2026.

Weekly Macroeconomic Statistics

1. US GDP for the second quarter (first estimate) — Thursday.
2. Core PCE deflator for June — a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve.
3. Personal income and expenditure of Americans, jobless claims.
4. Consumer confidence indices in the US and business sentiment in the Eurozone.
5. Inflation in Tokyo and industrial production in Japan.

Day Summary: What to Watch for Investors

1. Capital expenditures are more important than revenue. The reaction to the reports from Alphabet and Tesla demonstrated that the market is willing to penalize aggressive investments in AI even with strong operational results. Reports from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple will serve as a litmus test on whether these investments translate into cloud revenue growth.
2. Double risk from oil. Brent near $100 simultaneously supports oil and gas exporters (including the Russian market) while imposing an inflationary burden on industries, transport, and consumers. Assess the balance your portfolio strikes in this regard.
3. Federal Reserve decision without dot plot. The absence of new forecasts increases the weight of the statements and press conference communications. The hike scenario, perceived by the market at about one-third, is undervalued in the pricing of risk assets.
4. New US tariffs. The tariffs ranging from 10-12.5% on major trading partners will gradually manifest in the margins of importers and inflation statistics in the fall.
5. The Russian market: the easing cycle continues. Lowering the key rate to 14% reduces funding costs and enhances the attractiveness of shares relative to deposits, but the neutral signal from the Central Bank and rising inflation expectations necessitate caution regarding long OFZs.
6. Weekend homework. Check the diversification across regions and sectors, the proportion of defensive assets, and stop-loss levels before trading opens on Monday — the week promises increased volatility.