Economic Events and Corporate Reports - Thursday, January 29, 2026: Central Bank Rates of Brazil and South Africa, Reports from Apple and Visa

Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Thursday, January 29, 2026: Central Bank Decisions, Macroeconomic Data from the US, Eurozone, and South Africa, as well as Earnings Reports from Major Public Companies Worldwide. An Overview for Investors.

Thursday sets the stage for a busy agenda for global markets. Central bank decisions from Brazil and South Africa regarding interest rates will reveal the sentiments of regulators in emerging markets amidst inflation dynamics. The Eurozone will release consumer confidence indices and inflation expectations, complemented by a series of corporate reports from major companies in the region. In the United States, the key events of the day will be the financial results for tech giant Apple and payment system Visa (released after market close), while throughout the day, investors will analyze weekly labor market data and trade balance statistics. The energy sector is focused on the US natural gas inventory report due to the winter season. Investors must assess all signals in combination: dovish tone from central banks in emerging markets ↔ dynamics in bond yields and EM currencies ↔ results from Apple and Visa ↔ risk appetite in equity markets (S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, etc.).

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. 00:30 — Brazil: Central Bank interest rate decision.
2. 13:00 — Eurozone: Consumer confidence index (January).
3. 13:00 — Eurozone: Consumer inflation expectations index (January).
4. 16:00 — South Africa: Central Bank (SARB) interest rate decision.
5. 16:30 — US: Initial jobless claims (week).
6. 16:30 — US: Trade balance (November).
7. 18:00 — US: Volume of factory orders (November).
8. 18:30 — US: Natural gas inventories (week, EIA).

Emerging Markets: Central Bank Decisions of Brazil and South Africa

• Brazil: The Central Bank (Copom) is likely to maintain the interest rate at around 15%, the highest in the last 20 years. Inflation in Brazil has slowed (around 4-5% YoY) but remains above the target, prompting the regulator to adopt a hawkish tone. Markets will look for hints of policy easing: many expect a signal for the start of a rate-cutting cycle by March if inflation expectations continue to decline. Any change in rhetoric could impact the value of the real and Brazilian asset prices.
• South Africa: The South African Reserve Bank's meeting occurs against the backdrop of inflation approaching a new goal of 3%. In December, consumer prices rose by +3.6% YoY, and the rand strengthened at the end of 2025. The regulator in South Africa has already begun a cautious rate-cutting cycle, and the current decision is a delicate choice between a hold (maintaining the rate at around 6.75%) and a slight cut of 0.25%. Analysts are divided in their forecasts. Easing policy would support economic growth and the local stock index; however, some committee members may prefer to wait for additional data (new CPI, national budget in February) for confidence. Investors will closely listen to comments from the SARB head: signals about further rate cuts could stimulate demand for South African bonds and affect the rand's exchange rate.

Eurozone: Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations

• Consumer Confidence: The European Commission will publish the consumer confidence index for January. The indicator is expected to remain in negative territory (around -13 to -15 points), reflecting the continued cautious sentiment of households in the Eurozone. With persistently low unemployment and declining inflation, a moderate improvement in sentiment would bolster hopes for sustained consumer spending. However, the deep negative index indicates that Europeans are currently inclined toward saving behavior, which may restrain retail sales.
• Inflation Expectations: Simultaneously, consumer expectations regarding inflation will be revealed. In December, expectations for the near term and beyond declined closer to ~4%, which is within the acceptable range around the ECB's target. If the January survey shows further declines in expected inflation, this would be a positive signal for the European Central Bank — confidence that price pressure is being controlled is increasing. Conversely, an unexpected rise in inflation expectations could reinforce a hawkish stance from the ECB. The index results will influence the euro and sentiment in European markets: lower expectations could support European stocks amid hopes for a dovish monetary policy.

US: Labor Market and Manufacturing

• Initial Jobless Claims: The weekly figure for initial jobless claims in the US remains around multiyear lows (~200-210 thousand claims). This confirms the resilience of the labor market: American employers are hesitating to lay off personnel even in the face of elevated Fed rates. If the new data for the week ending January 24 again shows a figure below ~220 thousand, investors will strengthen their view on the economy's robustness. However, an increase in claims above expectations could signal the beginning of weakening in the labor market, eventually impacting Fed policy.
• Trade Balance (November): US trade data for November will help assess the contribution of net exports to GDP growth in Q4. In October, the US trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to ~$29 billion, the lowest level since 2009, thanks to a sharp increase in exports (including gold) and a reduction in imports. If the November trend of maintaining the deficit at a low level continues, it would support calculations for a positive contribution from foreign trade to economic growth. On the flip side, an expansion of the deficit could indicate a revival of domestic demand (increased imports) and weakening support from exports. Special attention should be given to the dynamics of industrial product exports and energy resources, as well as import flows of consumer goods during the holiday season.
• Factory Orders (November): The report on factory orders will highlight activity in the US manufacturing sector at the end of the year. A growth in this indicator is expected after a decline in October, largely due to the aerospace sector: it was previously reported that orders for durable goods rose by ~5% MoM in November amid a large volume of contracts for aircraft. An increase in orders signals sustained business investment demand, which is positive for manufacturers (Boeing, Caterpillar, etc.). Conversely, disappointing orders would indicate company caution under high rates and may intensify discussions about the risk of an industrial recession.

Energy Market: Natural Gas Inventories (EIA)

• The US Department of Energy will release data on natural gas inventories for the latest week in its weekly EIA report. Currently, natural gas stocks are seasonally declining due to winter heating demand. Analyst forecasts expect significant withdrawals — possibly around 120-150 billion cubic feet for the week, comparable to historical averages for late January. If the actual reduction in gas stocks is greater than expected, it could drive spot market prices for natural gas up (especially in the US and Europe). Conversely, a moderate withdrawal volume or mild weather limiting demand may lead to further price declines. Energy sector traders will be closely monitoring whether current inventories are sufficient for the remainder of the winter and whether there is a risk of fuel shortages.

Earnings Reports: Before Market Open (BMO, US and Asia)

• Samsung Electronics & SK Hynix (South Korea): The Asian tech sector sets the tone this morning – the two largest memory manufacturers reported strong results for Q4 2025. Samsung Electronics announced record operating income, nearly tripling year-on-year due to a boom in AI-related demand and the recovery of the chip market. SK Hynix has also returned to profitability after a decline the previous year, thanks to rising prices for memory chips (DRAM/NAND) and a revival of data center orders. Investors are evaluating the comments from these Korean companies regarding demand prospects in 2026: the continuation of the chip cycle on the rise will support the global tech sector, while warnings about market saturation or price declines may dampen appetite for semiconductor stocks.
• Lockheed Martin (LMT): The American defense giant will present its earnings report before the US market opens, showing results for Q4 and the entirety of 2025. Expectations for Lockheed are positive: global growth in military budgets and demand for advanced weaponry (F-35 fighter jets, missile defense systems, etc.) are contributing to an increase in the order backlog. Investors are likely to focus on the size of the contracts backlog and management's forecast for 2026. Particular attention will be paid to margins and cost management in an inflationary environment, as well as comments regarding supply chains. Stable or outperforming metrics from Lockheed Martin will support the entire defense sector, while a weak forecast could trigger profit-taking in defense stocks that have increased over the past year.
• Mastercard (MA): One of the leading payment systems in the world will report in the morning, providing data for Q4 2025. Strong profit growth is expected amid a high volume of transactions: the holiday sale season and increased tourist traffic (cross-border payments) should support revenue. Investors will analyze the dynamics of the Gross Dollar Volume, growth in processed transactions, and metrics by segments (e.g., B2B payments). Comments on consumer spending trends are also crucial — are there signs of a slowdown amid higher interest rates and prices? Any signals from Mastercard regarding slowing activity or rising costs (e.g., due to new security technologies and competition) could also impact the stocks of Visa, American Express, and the banking sector.
• Honeywell (HON): The industrial conglomerate from the Dow Jones index will present its quarterly results and forecast for 2026. Honeywell has a balanced business — from aerospace equipment and automation systems to energy and digital sectors. Revenue growth is expected, especially in the aerospace division, taking into account the high demand for aircraft parts and maintenance in the context of recovering passenger transport. Investors will also be interested in orders in the automation and climate control segments (impact of industrial modernization projects and "green" initiatives). The company has already hinted at cost optimization, so markets will closely watch the level of operating margin. If Honeywell confirms a strong outlook for 2026 (profit growth, stable margins), this will bolster confidence in the US industrial sector. Weak segments or cautious guidance, on the contrary, could heighten fears about economic slowdown.
• Caterpillar (CAT): The global leader in construction and mining machinery will report before trading begins. Caterpillar serves as a barometer of global investment activity in infrastructure, construction, and resource extraction. Results are likely to reflect high sales of construction equipment in North America (due to infrastructure projects in the US) and steady demand for mining equipment (supported by high commodity prices in 2025). Focus will be on order dynamics from China and emerging markets: a slowdown in the construction sector in China or other regions could impact CAT's Asian sales. Furthermore, investors will assess finished products inventory and order book-to-bill ratio to understand whether excess inventory is accumulating with dealers. A strong report from Caterpillar with a positive demand outlook will signal resilience in the global economy, while cautious comments (e.g., about rising rates weighing on builders) may cool enthusiasm in the industrial segment.

Earnings Reports: After Market Close (AMC, US)

• Apple (AAPL): The highlight of the day will be Apple’s report for Q1 2026 fiscal year (fourth calendar quarter of 2025), which will be released after 23:00 MSK. Investors expect strong results for the holiday quarter: demand for flagship devices is traditionally high at the end of the year. Focus will be on iPhone 17 sales and, particularly, dynamics in China: competition in the Chinese smartphone market has intensified, and any signs of slowing demand or price pressure there will be closely scrutinized. Additionally, Apple continues to focus on growth in the services segment (App Store, subscriptions, media) — acceleration in services revenue growth enhances the business's margin profile. Key performance indicators for iPad and Mac after periods of decline, as well as the success of new products (e.g., mixed reality headset, if launched), are also critical. Margins will be under close observation: the company previously warned about the impact of a strong dollar and chip costs. If Apple exceeds profit expectations and provides a confident forecast, it could support the entire tech sector and may propel the Nasdaq and S&P 500 upward. However, even a slight disappointment (e.g., weak sales forecast or margin compression) could trigger significant volatility and profit-taking among tech giant stocks.
• Visa (V): The leading global payment network will also report after the US market closes, presenting results for the 1st quarter of 2026 fiscal year. Like Mastercard, investors view Visa as an indicator of global consumer spending. Steady revenue growth is expected, fueled by an increase in payment volumes and transactions. Special interest lies in cross-border transactions data, which reflect international tourism and e-commerce: travel recovery in 2025 could have positively impacted Visa's commissions. Management is likely to remark on macro factors: inflation (increases nominal payment volumes), interest rates (which may restrain credit spending), and competition from fintech startups. Investors will assess Visa's forecast for 2026: maintaining double-digit growth rates for profits and turnover will be a reassuring signal. Any mention of slowing consumer activity, tightening regulation (e.g., fee caps), or technological risks could result in a short-term dip not only in Visa stocks but across the entire financial sector.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• Euro Stoxx 50: Europe on January 29 is rich in corporate earnings from blue-chip companies. Several heavyweights in the Euro Stoxx 50 index are reporting: among them SAP (the largest software developer in the EU), pharmaceutical giants Roche and Sanofi, as well as banks (Deutsche Bank, Nordea) and industrial leaders (ABB and Siemens Energy). These releases will set the tone for the European market: for instance, strong results from SAP coming from the cloud business or positive profit guidance from Roche could support growth in Euro Stoxx 50, while disappointments in banks or the industry could heighten investor caution. Additionally, the statistical data from the European Commission (consumer confidence, inflation expectations) will impact the retail and financial sectors in the EU. Overall, European investors will balance between domestic factors (company reports) and external contexts (monetary decisions in Brazil/South Africa, and technology reports from the US in the evening).
• Nikkei 225 (Japan): In the Asian region, attention is on corporate news from Japan. Major Japanese manufacturers have published quarterly results: for example, Hitachi (a diversified technology conglomerate) and Keyence (a global leader in industrial automation) reported profitability. The trends they indicate are important for understanding the state of the industry: a rise in orders for equipment and electronics indicates healthy capital investment in the economy. If Japanese companies outperform expectations, the Nikkei 225 will receive support, particularly in electronics and machinery segments. Asian investors are also considering reports from Samsung and SK Hynix: the success of Korean chipmakers could positively affect the stocks of Japanese component suppliers (Tokyo Electron, Advantest). External factors — for instance, currency stability and news from China — complement the trading picture in Tokyo.
• MOEX (Russia): On the Russian market, January 29 sees no financial reporting from leading issuers, meaning the dynamics of the MOEX index will primarily be determined by external factors. Sentiments this morning will be set by the Asian session (reaction to decisions in Brazil/South Africa and reports from Samsung), while in the afternoon, the situation on European exchanges will have an impact. Additional influence will come from oil and gas prices: following the EIA data on energy reserves, volatility may occur in the oil and gas sector. The ruble remains relatively stable due to high oil prices and exporters' revenue sales, so the currency factor is neutral for the stock market for now. The absence of internal drivers means that investors on the MOEX will look to the overall market climate: an increased risk appetite on global markets could push the index upward, while negative news from external platforms (e.g., a Nasdaq drop following Apple's report) may lead to cautious sentiment and profit-taking among local participants.

Summary of the Day: What Investors Should Pay Attention To

1. Central Banks in Emerging Markets: Are Brazil and South Africa signaling the start of a rate-cutting cycle? A dovish rhetoric will support risk demand in emerging markets (bonds, stocks), while unexpected hawkish tones may locally strengthen currencies (real, rand) and cool appetite for EM assets.
2. Apple - The Tech Benchmark: Apple's report and forecast will establish the mood in the technology sector globally. Strong sales and an optimistic forecast will generate a positive momentum for the Nasdaq and S&P 500, while weak figures may trigger sell-offs in tech stocks. Investors should evaluate how consumers are responding to Apple's innovations and whether growth in more profitable services continues.
3. Payment Demand and Consumption: Results from Visa (and morning reports from Mastercard) serve as indicators of the health of global consumer demand. Growth in transaction volumes and travel will confirm the economy's resilience amidst costly loans. However, if payment companies observe signs of spending slowdowns, this may heighten concerns about declining global consumption in 2026.
4. European and Asian Corporations: The block release of reports in Europe and Asia (SAP, Roche, Samsung, Hitachi, etc.) will demonstrate regional profitability dynamics. Better-than-expected releases will provide momentum to local indices Euro Stoxx 50 and Nikkei 225, confirming that businesses are adapting to new conditions. However, a series of weak reports may heighten volatility and shift investor focus to defensive assets.
5. Macroeconomic Data from the US: Although markets are accustomed to weekly statistics, a sudden spike in jobless claims or sharp changes in trade balance/orders may influence expectations regarding Fed policy. Investors should monitor whether the trend of a "soft landing" for the economy continues: low layoffs, healthy manufacturing, and balanced trade will strengthen confidence, while negative surprises could intensify discussions about recession risks.