Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Monday, January 26, 2026: Durable Goods Orders in the US, Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany, Earnings Reports from Major US, European, Asian, and Russian Companies. Analysis for Investors and Global Market Overview.
The new week begins relatively calmly but contains significant signals for global markets. Investors are focusing on US industrial data – primarily December's durable goods orders – which will clarify the state of the manufacturing sector ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision mid-week. In Europe, the Ifo business climate index in Germany is in the spotlight as a barometer of business activity at the start of the year. On the corporate agenda, the first reports of the season are expected: in the US, industrial and financial companies will report, while in Europe, the results of a leading airline will take center stage. In Asia, trading activity is partially subdued due to a holiday in Australia; however, regional markets continue to react to global trends. Overall, Monday sets the tone for the week: the absence of significant macroeconomic statistics is compensated by close attention to any signals regarding the trajectory of the economy and corporate profits.
Macroeconomic Calendar (Moscow Time)
- 12:00 – Germany: Ifo Business Climate Index (January).
- 16:30 – US: Durable Goods Orders (December).
- 16:30 – US: Non-Transportation Durable Goods Orders (December).
- 18:30 – US: Dallas Federal Reserve Business Activity Index (January).
US: Durable Goods Orders
- Overall Orders Dynamics – an indicator of business investments in fixed assets. An increase in new orders for goods with a lifespan of more than three years (automobiles, machinery, equipment) signals a revival in the industrial sector and companies' confidence in future demand. Conversely, a decrease may indicate caution among manufacturers and amplify concerns regarding economic slowdown.
- Core Orders (excluding transportation and defense) – reflect trends in capital expenditures in the private sector. Orders for capital goods, excluding defense and aerospace, are particularly important as a leading indicator of business investment. Sustained growth in this metric would support positive GDP expectations for the US in Q4, while weakness could prompt a downward revision of forecasts.
- Market Impact – Strong durable goods data could bolster the US dollar and raise Treasury bond yields, indicating economic resilience ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision. This may exert pressure on high-tech stocks (which are sensitive to interest rates) but support valuations of industrial companies. In contrast, weak statistics would weaken the dollar and reduce yields, heightening expectations for softer policy, which could temporarily support stock indices.
Europe: Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany
- Business Sentiment – The January Ifo index reflects German companies' assessments of the current situation and expectations for the next six months. This is the first significant indicator of the year for the Eurozone economy. An improvement in this measure would signal a recovery in business activity at the start of 2026 after potential stagnation, supporting European markets and the euro. A drop in the index would serve as a worrying signal of demand and investment weakness in the largest economy in the EU.
- Index Components – Investors will pay attention to sub-indices of current situation and business expectations. Growth in the expectations component is particularly important: optimism among companies regarding the future may signal easing recession risks in Europe. If expectations worsen, this would bolster defensive sentiment, potentially leading to a decline in the DAX index and an increase in demand for safe assets (bonds, gold).
- Connection to ECB Policy – Although a decision from the European Central Bank is not expected on this day, the Ifo data indirectly affects the ECB's rhetoric. An improving business climate would provide hawkish arguments for further tightening policy to curb inflation, while a weak index would add to the case for a cautious approach. This, in turn, would reflect on the EUR/USD exchange rate and yields on European bonds.
Earnings Reports: Before US Market Open (BMO)
- Steel Dynamics (STLD) – One of the largest US steel producers will report before trading begins. Investors will focus on the margin of the metallurgical business and management's outlook on steel demand in 2026. Shipping volumes and pricing dynamics are particularly significant: an increase in sales amid stable prices would indicate a recovery in industrial demand. Market participants will also evaluate the company's comments on input costs for raw materials and energy to understand cost pressures.
Earnings Reports: After US Market Close (AMC)
- Nucor Corporation (NUE) – The largest steel manufacturer in the US (S&P 500). The Q4 report will demonstrate the state of American metallurgy. Key metrics include the average realized price for steel products, capacity utilization, and shipment volumes. Investors are also looking for demand forecasts from the construction and automotive sectors – the main consumers of steel. Strong results from Nucor could serve as a positive driver for the entire industrial sector, while weak figures would amplify concerns over the manufacturing sector.
- Brown & Brown (BRO) – An insurance broker and consultant. The company's results will reflect the state of the insurance market: growth in commission revenues and organic premium growth would indicate healthy demand for insurance products from businesses and consumers. Management's comments on pricing in property and liability insurance, as well as projections for attracting new clients, are especially important. BRO's data is interesting to investors as an indicator of the financial sector and business activity among small and medium-sized enterprises.
- W. R. Berkley (WRB) – A major commercial insurer (property & casualty insurance). The focus is on the combined ratio (losses and expenses relative to premiums) and the dynamics of claims reserves. Improvements in these metrics indicate underwriting profitability and the resilience of the insurance portfolio. Furthermore, WRB may comment on loss trends due to natural disasters and major claims: a low level of catastrophic payouts would support results. Berkley's report will provide benchmarks on the state of the insurance sector and corporate credit risk.
- Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) – An investment trust specializing in real estate for scientific laboratories and biotech offices. The quarterly report will demonstrate whether demand for lab space remains high despite general weaknesses in commercial real estate. Investors will assess occupancy rates, rental trends, and plans for developing new campuses. Strong results from ARE would indicate that the life sciences segment is resilient to macro challenges, whereas problems with vacancies or declining rents could raise concerns about office real estate.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Euro Stoxx 50: In Europe, the corporate calendar for Monday is not rich in “blue chips.” Attention is primarily focused on the report from Ryanair – the largest low-cost carrier in Europe. Ryanair’s financial results for Q4 2025 (3rd quarter of the company’s financial year) will show trends in passenger traffic, flight load factors, and the impact of fuel prices. A successful report from the carrier will support stocks in the travel and airline sector in Europe, signaling a continued recovery in travel. Additionally, a report from Swedish industrialist Epiroc AB (mining equipment) will provide insight into global investment demand in the commodity and infrastructure markets. Overall, European markets at the start of the week will react to the Ifo index and external factors, as major reports from Euro Stoxx 50 companies are concentrated in the second half of the week.
- Nikkei 225 / Japan: In Japan, Monday is not marked by any significant statistics, and markets are following global trends. Investors are assessing the moderate slowdown in inflation in the country (December’s core CPI eased to ~2.4% YoY) and speculating on how this may impact the Bank of Japan's policy. The earnings season in Tokyo is just gaining momentum: major releases from high-tech corporations and car manufacturers are expected closer to the end of January and early February. At the start of the week, the Nikkei index may move within a limited range as local investors await signals from the US Federal Reserve and initial results from Japanese exporters.
- MOEX / Russia: The Russian market is experiencing a relative calm before the annual earnings season. On Monday, large publicly traded companies from the Moscow Exchange index typically do not publish financial results – major 2025 reports are expected in February and March. However, operational data from individual issuers for Q4 may be released (e.g., resource production, performance metrics), which will locally impact the respective stocks. The overall sentiment on the Moscow Exchange that day will be influenced by global factors – oil price dynamics, sentiment in global markets, and the ruble exchange rate. The absence of internal triggers means that Russian investors will be attuned to external risk signals and appetites for emerging markets.
Summary of the Day: Key Points for Investors
- US Orders: The durable goods report will be the main trigger of the day. Keep an eye on the core component (capital orders) – its confident growth will support the dollar and strengthen expectations of a hawkish Fed tone, while weakness may trigger a bond rally and an increase in tech-heavy Nasdaq.
- European Economy: The morning Ifo index in Germany will set the tone for trading in the EU. Better-than-expected readings will strengthen the euro and stocks of cyclical companies in Europe (automotive, banks), while negative surprises will increase demand for safe assets and may exert pressure on the EUR exchange rate, benefiting exporters.
- Corporate Reports: Focus will be on results from industrial leaders and the consumer sector. In the US, the duo of Steel Dynamics and Nucor will provide benchmarks for the raw materials and construction segments: their profitability and forecasts will reveal the state of steel demand. In Europe, Ryanair's report will illustrate trends in the tourism sector and consumer spending. Investors need to assess whether corporate profits justify high equity valuations or if a forecast revision is necessary.
- Central Bank Meetings Ahead: A calm Monday provides an opportunity to prepare for mid-week volatility. Already on Wednesday, the market anticipates decisions from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, followed by inflation data from Japan and GDP from Europe in subsequent days. Therefore, investors can use the current day for positioning: reassess hedging, ensure portfolio diversification, and set key risk levels ahead of potentially sharp market fluctuations.
