Analysis of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Thursday, December 4, 2025: Putin's Visit to India, Macron's Visit to China, Brazil's GDP, US Jobless Claims, Canada’s PMI, and Global Company Reports.
Thursday promises a diverse agenda for investors in global markets. World stock indices—ranging from the American S&P 500 and Japanese Nikkei 225 to the European Euro Stoxx 50 and the Russian Moscow Exchange Index—are hovering near recent highs amid signs of cooling inflation and soft signals from central banks. Attention is now turning to fresh economic events and corporate reports: high-level diplomatic visits in Asia, critical macroeconomic data (Brazil's GDP, US employment statistics, Canada's PMI), as well as the financial results of several major companies. Investors will need to correlate these factors with market dynamics: strong growth and employment figures will bolster risk appetite, whereas negative surprises may increase volatility.
Macro Economic Calendar (MSK)
- 00:30 — USA: Weekly API Oil Inventory Report.
- 13:00 — Eurozone: Retail Sales (October).
- 15:00 — Brazil: GDP for Q3 2025.
- 16:30 — USA: Initial Jobless Claims (week).
- 18:00 — Canada: Ivey PMI Business Activity Index (November).
Asia
- Asian markets will not receive significant new statistics on this day, hence regional indices (such as the Nikkei 225 in Japan and Shanghai Composite in China) will be influenced by external signals. Investor sentiment in Asia largely depends on global trends and news, and the absence of domestic data makes them more sensitive to developments in the US and Europe.
- Force majeure: President of France Emmanuel Macron's state visit to China (December 3-5) is ongoing. Meetings in Beijing are aimed at strengthening EU-China trade and economic cooperation. While no groundbreaking agreements are expected, the very fact of dialogue between these two major economies underscores China's geo-economic significance. For the Asia-Pacific financial markets, the direct impact of these negotiations will be neutral; however, any statements resulting from the visit may temporarily increase volatility in specific sectors (such as aviation or technology, if relevant deals are discussed).
Europe
- The Eurozone will release retail sales data for October (13:00 MSK). The figure is expected to remain close to neutral following a slight decline in September. The state of consumer demand is an important indicator for Europe's economic health: an unexpected drop in sales would heighten concerns about economic slowdown, while growth above expectations would support European stocks and the euro.
- European markets are expected to have a day free of major domestic shocks and will primarily assess external factors. Corporate reports from individual companies are in focus: for example, German metallurgical group Aurubis will release its financial results, and British retailer Frasers Group will report on its operational successes. These news items might cause movement in respective stocks, but their influence on the broader European market will be limited. The Euro Stoxx 50 index maintains relatively stable dynamics, reacting mainly to overall signals regarding the global economy and monetary policy.
Russia
- Russian President Vladimir Putin begins his official visit to India (December 4-5). Discussions with Indian leadership will focus on deepening trade ties, energy cooperation (including potential new agreements for oil and gas supplies), and joint investment projects. The signing of large contracts— for instance, in the defense industry or natural resources—could potentially strengthen the position of Russian corporations in these sectors. In the short term, however, this visit is expected to have a limited impact on the dynamics of the Russian stock market, acting more as a strategic factor than a direct market driver.
- No new macro data is expected in the Russian market on Thursday, following the release of November inflation data the day prior. The earnings season on the Moscow Exchange is drawing to a close, with most major issuers having already disclosed their results for Q3. In the absence of fresh domestic triggers, investors will be keeping an eye on external backgrounds: oil prices, global market movements, and currency factors. The Russian ruble remains relatively stable around 78 against the dollar, supported by export revenues and currency interventions by the Ministry of Finance.
US and Americas
- The state of the labor market takes center stage in the US. Weekly initial jobless claims (16:30 MSK) will serve as a leading indicator ahead of the crucial Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. A noticeable decrease in new claims would confirm the resilience of the labor market, potentially strengthening expectations for a tighter Federal Reserve policy (putting pressure on bonds and supporting the dollar). Conversely, an increase in claims would signal an economic cool-down and weaken arguments for rate hikes, positively impacting stock indices.
- In Latin America, the key release is Brazil's GDP for Q3. Moderate growth in the region's largest economy is expected to continue, supported by strong domestic demand and raw material exports. Strong data would bolster investor confidence in the outlook for emerging markets and support the Brazilian Bovespa index, while weak GDP figures could lead to a capital redistribution in favor of safer assets. Additionally, at 18:00 MSK, the Ivey PMI business activity index in Canada will be released: this indicator will reflect the state of Canadian business in November. A PMI increase above 50 points will indicate economic expansion and may strengthen the Canadian dollar, whereas a drop in the index will reignite discussions about potential stimuli from the Bank of Canada.
- Corporate earnings (US and Canada): Several large companies will publish their financial results, posing a risk of increased volatility in individual stocks. Before the opening of American exchanges, quarterly reports from leading Canadian banks (Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank of Montreal, CIBC) and one of the largest US retailers, Kroger, will be disclosed. After market close, reports will come from tech giant Hewlett Packard Enterprise, beauty retail chain Ulta Beauty, discount retailer Dollar General, e-signature software developer DocuSign, among others. Should the earnings reports exceed expectations, respective stocks could soar, setting a positive tone for the sector overall (from finance to consumer). Disappointing results, on the other hand, could lead to sell-offs in certain segments and restrain growth in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices.
Commodities and Currencies
- The oil market is monitoring the American Petroleum Institute (API) data on US crude oil inventories, released overnight. Preliminary estimates indicate a reduction in commercial inventories amidst increased fuel consumption during the holiday transport period. If actual inventory drawdowns are larger than expected, Brent and WTI quotes will receive an additional growth impulse. Conversely, if stocks increase or the reduction is less significant, the price rally may pause. Additionally, traders are assessing the outcomes from recent OPEC+ meetings and signals regarding future production, which influence mid-term expectations in the oil market.
- Commodity markets, in general, maintain relative equilibrium. Industrial metals are trading slightly higher, supported by recovering demand in China, while precious metals are consolidating following recent gains. The currency market reflects a softening Fed rhetoric: the US dollar index is declining to recent lows, thereby allowing emerging market currencies and resource-linked currencies (such as the Canadian dollar) to feel more secure. The euro and pound are holding steady against the dollar, supported by local data. Simultaneously, the Russian ruble remains relatively stable, balancing the influence of recent rising oil prices and domestic factors. Investors are closely monitoring currency market trends to timely assess risks to their international portfolios.
What Investors Should Focus On
- US Labor Market Data: The number of new jobless claims will provide an early signal about the economy ahead of the official employment report. A sharp decline in claims would strengthen growth expectations and may drive bond yields higher, while an increase in claims would support calls for an imminent easing of Fed policy.
- Quarterly Reports from Market Leaders: The financial results of companies such as Kroger, Dollar General, HPE, and the largest Canadian banks reflect the health of several sectors—from consumer demand to the banking system. It is important for investors to compare published figures with forecasts: exceeding expectations could push stocks in these sectors higher, while weak reports may lead to declines and a reassessment of industry valuations.
- The Situation in the Oil Market: The dynamics of oil prices following the API report on inventories will provide clues for the oil and gas sector. A significant reduction in inventories and subsequent rise in oil prices will improve sentiment in the energy segment and support export-oriented markets (including Russia), whereas an unexpected increase in inventories may temporarily weaken oil futures and related stocks.
