Crypto News: Wednesday, 29 July 2026 — Market Holds Its Breath Ahead of Fed Rate Decision
The cryptocurrency market enters Wednesday, 29 July 2026, in a state of heightened concentration: today the US Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, which traders are calling the most unpredictable in recent years. On the eve of the decision, the bitcoin price dipped below $64,000, altcoins lost between 3% and 9%, and the total crypto market capitalisation shrank to $2.17–2.2 trillion. Crypto news today is defined by a single factor — US monetary policy — and investors worldwide are reducing risk as they await the regulator’s verdict.
Key Takeaways for Wednesday Morning: Major Crypto Market Events
- Bitcoin is trading around $63,300–63,700 after a 2.5–3% decline over the past 24 hours; a four-week winning streak has been paused.
- Ethereum has corrected to $1,870–1,890, giving back some of the gains from earlier this week when the asset was up more than 4%.
- The two-day FOMC meeting concludes today: the futures market now prices in roughly a 36% probability of a rate hike, up from 26% a week ago.
- Over 118,000 traders saw their positions liquidated in the past 24 hours, totalling approximately $438 million — the derivatives market has sharply reduced leverage.
- The Fear and Greed Index remains in “Fear” territory, reflecting investor caution.
Bitcoin: Consolidating Below $64,000 Ahead of the Regulator’s Verdict
The leading cryptocurrency closed Monday around $64,800, but selling pressure intensified on Tuesday, pushing bitcoin down to $63,300–63,400. Technical analysts note that the weekend rally predictably faded after failing to hold above $65,800, while liquidity above local highs remains the target for any future upside move.
The context is critical: BTC is still trading roughly 48% below its all-time high of around $126,000, reached in October 2025. Bitcoin dominance remains near 58% — capital is not rushing into riskier assets, a typical pattern during periods of uncertainty.
The Fed Meeting: Why the 29 July Decision Is Crucial for Cryptocurrencies
The FOMC meeting outcome will be announced today, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference. The unique aspect of this moment is the lack of market consensus: the base case remains a hold on rates, but the probability of a hike has risen from 26% to nearly 36% over the past week.
Possible Scenarios for the Crypto Market
- Rate hold with dovish rhetoric — the most favourable outcome: a return of inflows into exchange-traded funds and an attempt by bitcoin to establish itself above $65,000.
- Rate hold with hawkish rhetoric — a neutral-to-negative scenario, with continued sideways movement and elevated volatility.
- Rate hike — a stress scenario: in June, the Fed’s hawkish shift in projections sent bitcoin down 5.6% in a single day, and a repeat of such a hawkish surprise could trigger a deeper correction.
Historically, when a rate hold is expected, the market reacts not so much to the decision itself as to the tone of the accompanying statements — the regulator’s wording will set the direction for the remainder of the summer.
Ethereum: Correction After Outperformance
Ethereum started the week stronger than the broader market, gaining more than 4% and rising to $1,960, but pulled back to $1,870–1,890 on Tuesday. Corporate buyers continue to provide support: major treasury companies are steadily building positions in ETH, signalling confidence in the long-term prospects of the second-largest cryptocurrency. However, weak spot volumes are a concern: average daily turnover in July has nearly halved compared to June, making any rally vulnerable without confirmation from broader demand.
Crypto ETF Flows: Mixed Signals
Exchange-traded funds — a key indicator of institutional demand — presented a mixed picture at the start of the week:
- Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of around $11.6 million, though last week outflows reached as high as $240 million in a single day;
- Ethereum funds attracted approximately $9.2 million — institutions are cautiously buying ETH on dips;
- XRP funds broke a period of inactivity: inflows were recorded for the first time in several weeks, and total inflows into this segment have reached $1.5 billion.
Stablecoin capitalisation remains around $300 billion — a significant amount of “dry powder” is sitting on the sidelines, awaiting clarity from the Fed.
Altcoins: XRP, Solana and Hyperliquid Under Pressure
The altcoin segment declined at a faster pace on Tuesday. XRP fell to around $1.05, losing nearly 5% in 24 hours despite the positive ETF flows. Solana is trading near $73 after a 4.7% decline — while the market awaits the major Alpenglow consensus upgrade, which could serve as a fundamental catalyst for the network. Hyperliquid was the day’s worst performer among major assets, losing approximately 9%. Dogecoin is hovering near $0.07 with a bearish technical picture.
Top 10 Cryptocurrencies by Market Capitalisation: Current Levels
- Bitcoin (BTC) — around $63,400; market cap approximately $1.27–1.3 trillion, dominance ~58%.
- Ethereum (ETH) — around $1,880; market cap approximately $230 billion.
- Tether (USDT) — $1.00; the largest stablecoin.
- BNB — around $567; the asset is declining moderately (-1.1%), acting as a relative safe haven in portfolios.
- XRP — around $1.05; in focus — first inflows into dedicated ETFs in weeks.
- USD Coin (USDC) — $1.00; the second major stablecoin.
- Solana (SOL) — around $73; its yearly high of $253 remains a distant target.
- TRON (TRX) — around $0.33; the network continues to lead in stablecoin settlements.
- Dogecoin (DOGE) — around $0.07; the largest meme coin holds its place in the top ten.
- Hyperliquid (HYPE) — around $54; the most volatile asset in the top ten this week.
Macroeconomics and Geopolitics: Other Market Drivers
Beyond the Fed, several external factors are influencing cryptocurrency prices. De-escalation between the US and Iran and a halt to reciprocal strikes have lowered oil quotes and eased inflation fears — supporting risk appetite earlier in the week. At the same time, a sell-off in technology and AI stocks, including pressure on Nvidia shares, is testing the crypto market’s resilience: bitcoin has so far shown stability despite the equity index declines.
The industry backdrop remains challenging: the market is absorbing FTX creditor repayments totalling approximately $900 million, while the announced closure of two exchanges — BitMEX and BitMart — underscores ongoing industry consolidation. In Washington, the Senate has delayed consideration of a digital asset regulation bill, leaving regulatory uncertainty in place for the US market.
Outlook: What Investors Should Watch on 29 July
Wednesday promises to be the most volatile day of the week. Investors should focus on three key indicators:
- The Fed’s decision and rhetoric — the primary catalyst: a dovish tone opens the door to $65,000–66,000 for bitcoin; a hawkish surprise risks testing support at $60,000–62,000;
- Spot ETF flows — a resumption of inflows would confirm the return of institutional demand;
- Derivatives dynamics — after $438 million in liquidations, reduced leverage lowers the risk of cascading sell-offs but also limits upside momentum.
The options market is pricing in a relatively calm reaction to the regulator’s decision, but history shows that “predictable” Fed meetings have often produced the sharpest moves in crypto. For long-term investors, the current consolidation near $63,000–65,000 represents an accumulation phase ahead of the next trend direction for the second half of 2026.
This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are a highly volatile asset class: prices change minute by minute; please verify current data before making decisions.
