Global Lithium Prices Surge Amid Rising Battery Demand. Russia Prepares to Launch Its Own Lithium Production by 2026, Targeting 28,000 Tons Annually by 2030. An Analytical Review for Investors.
Global lithium prices are experiencing a new wave of growth fueled by expectations of a rapid increase in demand. In early December, futures for lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou exchange skyrocketed to $13,300 per ton — the highest in the last eighteen months. On the London Metal Exchange, contracts for lithium hydroxide surpassed $10,000 per ton, marking a 6% increase in just a month. Experts attribute this resurgence to the projected explosive growth of the battery and electric vehicle markets in the coming years.
According to analysts, global lithium demand may reach 700,000 to 900,000 tons (in terms of pure metal) by 2026, significantly higher than levels seen in the mid-2020s. In comparison, the International Energy Agency estimated global lithium consumption in 2024 to be around 220,000 tons. While there is a wide range of forecasts, there is consensus on one point — consumption of "white gold" will grow at an accelerating pace. By 2030, annual demand is expected to exceed 1 to 2 million tons, reflecting the boom in electric vehicle production and energy storage systems.
Batteries and Electric Vehicles — The Main Demand Drivers
The rapid growth in lithium utilization is primarily driven by advancements in battery technology. Approximately 80% of all lithium produced today is used for lithium-ion batteries, predominantly for electric vehicles. As the global automotive industry transitions to electric propulsion, demand for batteries will increase exponentially. Experts predict that within the next 3 to 4 years, the market for "green" batteries will expand by hundreds of percent. By 2028-2030, global annual electric vehicle production could reach 20-25 million units, and lithium consumption will rise to unprecedented levels. The majority of consumption is concentrated in Asia: about 90% of lithium raw materials are processed into batteries in China, South Korea, and Japan. These regions, along with North America, lead in expanding the electric vehicle fleet and energy storage capacities.
Who Mines Lithium: Global Leaders
The global lithium mining market is currently dominated by a few countries. The largest producer is Australia, accounting for up to 40% of the world's primary lithium. Chile and China round out the top three. Meanwhile, China is rapidly increasing its presence in the sector: the country is investing in new deposits both domestically and abroad and controls about 60% of lithium raw material processing capacity. By the first half of 2025, China's share of global production had reached 28%, and analysts estimate that by 2026, China could surpass Australia to become the world’s largest lithium supplier, maintaining its leadership for at least the mid-2030s. Other players are also expanding production, with new projects underway in Zimbabwe and Argentina. In this race for “white gold,” Russia's role remains minimal for now; however, its own mining efforts could eventually position the country among key lithium producers.
Russia: Dependence on Lithium Imports
Despite the global excitement surrounding lithium, the actual mining of this metal in Russia is virtually nonexistent. Small volumes (around a few dozen tons per year) are extracted only as a byproduct at the Malyshevskoye beryllium deposit in the Sverdlovsk region. The majority of lithium needed for the economy is sourced from abroad. According to expert estimates, Russia’s current lithium needs amount to about 1,000 to 1,500 tons per year (in terms of pure metal) — all of which is fully covered by imports from Latin American countries and China. Less than half of this volume is used for battery production domestically; the rest is consumed in the production of specialty lubricants, heat-resistant ceramics, glass, and other materials.
This dependence on imported strategic raw materials jeopardizes plans for developing high-tech industries. While leading economies worldwide actively consolidate control over lithium resources globally, Russia is just starting to catch up on exploring its own reserves of the "new oil of the 21st century." The country has significant lithium resources — according to the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources, proven ore reserves amount to approximately 3.5 million tons of lithium oxide (equivalent to ~1.6 million tons of pure metal). This potential still needs to be converted into actual production.
Government Strategy: Launching Domestic Lithium Production
In 2025, Russian authorities clearly outlined a course to eliminate the lag in the lithium sector. In February, at the "Technologies of the Future" forum, President Vladimir Putin publicly lamented that lithium extraction in the country has yet to be established — despite having all the possibilities; production could have started 10-15 years ago. On November 1, he tasked the government with approving a “roadmap” for the long-term development of the extraction and production of rare and rare earth metals (including lithium) within a month. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin was appointed responsible for this matter, emphasizing its priority.
Specific goals have also been established. According to the Ministry of Natural Resources plans, by 2030, Russia should produce at least 60,000 tons of lithium carbonate annually — equivalent to approximately 28,000 tons of pure lithium per year. Achieving such volumes would fully cover domestic needs for the metal and even create an export reserve. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, achieving full "import independence" in lithium will require about six years — thus, by 2030, it is expected to reach self-sufficiency in the domestic market with its own lithium raw materials.
Key Lithium Mining Projects in Russia
To achieve the set goals, several investment projects at promising deposits are already underway or planned:
- Kolmozerskoye (Murmansk Region) — the largest lithium deposit in the country (about 19% of Russia's total reserves). It is being developed by the joint venture "Polar Lithium" (Nornickel and the mining division of the state corporation Rosatom). The start of ore extraction is slated for 2028, with a projected capacity expected by 2030-2031 to produce up to 45,000 tons of lithium carbonate and hydroxide annually.
- Polmostundrovskoye (Murmansk Region) — one of the largest lithium deposits on the Kola Peninsula. The license for development was granted to JSC "Khalmek" and PJSC "Krasnoyarsk Chemical and Metallurgical Plant" (project "Arctic Lithium"). Pilot ore extraction commenced in 2023, and by 2026, output equivalent to 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year is anticipated.
- Tastygskoye (Republic of Tuva) — a large lithium deposit (about 600,000 tons of lithium oxide). It is being developed by the company "Elbrusmetall-Lithium" (part of the state corporation Rostec). The license was obtained in 2023, and road construction and the mining and processing plant are underway. By 2027-2028, the plant is expected to start producing lithium ore concentrates (along with accompanying niobium, tantalum, and tin), which will then be processed into lithium carbonate at Russian facilities. The project aims to cover up to half of the country's internal demand by 2030.
- Kovykta (Irkutsk Region) — an innovative project for lithium extraction from underground brines at the Kovykta gas condensate field. This is being implemented with the participation of PJSC "Gazprom" and the Irkutsk Oil Company. In 2022-2023, a technology for sorption extraction of lithium was developed, and pilot industrial preparation is underway. If the technology is successful, production of lithium carbonate from lithium-rich brines at Kovykta is planned to begin by the end of the decade.
Prospects: Russia on the Lithium Map of the World
The implementation of planned projects could fundamentally change Russia’s standing in the global lithium industry. By achieving a production level of ~28,000 tons per year by 2030, the country would enter the ranks of notable lithium producers (in comparison, in 2024, this would exceed annual production levels in Zimbabwe or Argentina). Such a leap would not only eliminate the domestic market's dependence on imports but also strengthen the resource base for developing its own high-tech industries. Production capacities for lithium-ion batteries are already being built in the country — for example, the Rosatom plant for battery cell manufacturing in the Kaliningrad Region is expected to launch in 2025. The presence of domestic raw materials and a complete "ore-to-battery" cycle would allow Russia to reduce costs and risks in an increasingly critical value creation chain in the realms of electric mobility and energy.
For investors, the formation of the lithium industry in Russia opens up new opportunities. Major players, such as Nornickel, Rosatom, and Gazprom, are involved in the mining projects, signaling serious intentions and support at the highest level. Government participation and the strategic nature of the programs mitigate risks for investors interested in this new segment. Undoubtedly, much will depend on the successful launch of production and the dynamics of the global market, which remains volatile. Nonetheless, against the backdrop of a global race for resources crucial for the "green" economy, Russia's determination to secure a worthy position on the lithium map of the world appears to be a step towards diversifying its resource base and strengthening the country's technological sovereignty.
